NJTrackerHow Accurate Are NJTracker’s Track Predictions?
Independent · unofficial · free
Over the last 7 days NJTracker called 352 NJ Transit tracks at New York Penn Station before NJ Transit posted them. 93% sent riders to the right platform and 93% named the exact track.
93%Right platform · last 7 days
93%Exact track · last 7 days
352Calls scored · last 7 days
29Days scored since Oct 5
Figures as of Wednesday, November 4, computed each hour from NJTracker’s own records.
By line, since October 5
| Line | Calls | Exact | Platform |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast Corridor | 754 | 90% | 91% |
| North Jersey Coast Line | 414 | 91% | 92% |
| Morris & Essex Lines | 363 | 93% | 95% |
| Montclair-Boonton Line | 59 | 86% | 88% |
| Raritan Valley Line | 24 | 88% | 92% |
| All lines | 1614 | 91% | 92% |
Day by day
Each service day’s trains, newest first. A day appears once its trains are scored, after 3 AM the next morning.
| Day | Calls | Exact | Platform |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Nov 3 | 54 | 93% | 94% |
| Mon, Nov 2 | 35 | 94% | 94% |
| Sun, Nov 1 | 36 | 100% | 100% |
| Sat, Oct 31 | 49 | 92% | 92% |
| Fri, Oct 30 | 63 | 94% | 94% |
| Thu, Oct 29 | 57 | 91% | 91% |
| Wed, Oct 28 | 58 | 88% | 91% |
| Tue, Oct 27 | 44 | 93% | 93% |
| Mon, Oct 26 | 49 | 94% | 94% |
| Sun, Oct 25 | 35 | 97% | 100% |
| Sat, Oct 24 | 44 | 98% | 100% |
| Fri, Oct 23 | 42 | 90% | 90% |
| Thu, Oct 22 | 53 | 87% | 89% |
| Wed, Oct 21 | 56 | 89% | 91% |
| Tue, Oct 20 | 4 | 100% | 100% |
| Sun, Oct 18 | 46 | 98% | 98% |
| Sat, Oct 17 | 40 | 98% | 100% |
| Fri, Oct 16 | 38 | 87% | 89% |
| Thu, Oct 15 | 70 | 87% | 91% |
| Wed, Oct 14 | 62 | 87% | 89% |
| Tue, Oct 13 | 59 | 92% | 92% |
| Mon, Oct 12 | 46 | 91% | 93% |
| Sun, Oct 11 | 66 | 94% | 94% |
| Sat, Oct 10 | 57 | 89% | 89% |
| Fri, Oct 9 | 93 | 89% | 91% |
| Thu, Oct 8 | 108 | 90% | 91% |
| Wed, Oct 7 | 88 | 92% | 93% |
| Tue, Oct 6 | 87 | 85% | 87% |
| Mon, Oct 5 | 75 | 83% | 87% |
How a call is scored
- Ten minutes before a train leaves, NJTracker locks the track it is showing for that train and saves it.
- Only trains locked before NJ Transit posted the track count here; a track that was already posted is no prediction (NJ Transit usually posts about 10 minutes before departure).
- If a locked train then reaches a signal circuit that names another track, the board corrects it, and the track riders were shown is the one scored.
- After the train leaves, the call is compared with the track NJ Transit posted. “Exact” is the same track number. “Platform” is the same island platform (Tracks 1 and 2 share one, 3 and 4 the next, and so on), so a rider was at the right stairs.
- Amtrak trains are left out, and so is the evening of September 15, when a disabled train blocked a Hudson River tunnel.
The track prediction guide charts every scored day and explains how the predictions are made.
What changed
Changes to how NJTracker predicts tracks, newest first. The day-by-day table above shows how each one played out.
- Mon, Nov 2: A track locked from the train’s own signal circuit is re-checked once if the train then shows up on a signal circuit that names another track.
- Thu, Oct 29: When most of the tracks an arriving train usually goes to are taken, the few left no longer get a strong lean toward them.
- Sat, Oct 17: A departure leans harder toward the track of the arriving train it usually turns from.
- Tue, Oct 13: A train no longer gets a track NJ Transit has already posted for another train leaving before it, an out-of-date platform reading no longer misleads the re-check, and pairs of arriving and departing trains are learned from the weeks before Amtrak’s Portal North Bridge work.
- Sun, Oct 11: A pair of arriving and departing trains holds only for the scheduled time it was learned on.
- Sun, Oct 11: Trains with no signal circuit of their own use the scheduled track on NJ Transit’s station signs.
- Wed, Oct 7: Amtrak trains get a predicted track from NJ Transit’s scheduled-tracks sign. They are not counted in the figures on this page.
- Mon, Oct 5: Trains missing from NJ Transit’s timetable listing are now locked and scored like every other train.
- Sun, Oct 4: When the arriving train a departure usually turns from vanishes before reaching its platform, the prediction leans toward the tracks its last signal circuit usually leads to.
- Tue, Sep 29: Signal circuits that cover both tracks of one platform are read as that platform.
- Sun, Sep 27: Tracks held by Long Island Rail Road trains count as taken.
- Fri, Sep 25: Pairs of arriving and departing trains that use the same equipment are learned from the record, and the arriving train’s position on the NY Penn board is read.
- Wed, Sep 23: A departure leans toward the track of the arriving train it usually turns from.
- Sat, Sep 19: Track history is refreshed every night, and tracks with a train on them are ruled out.
- Wed, Sep 16: A locked track is re-checked if the train then reaches a signal circuit that names another track; riders see the corrected track, and that is what is scored.
- Sun, Sep 13: Scoring started over: only predictions locked live on the board count from this day on.
Related
- Live NY Penn board with predicted tracks
- NY Penn tracks for NJ Transit, track by track
- How NJ Transit track prediction works
Schedule and live data obtained from NJ Transit and redistributed by NJTracker. Times may not be real time — always check the station displays. Not affiliated with or licensed by NJ Transit or Amtrak.